COVID-19 Cases Rise as Flu Remains Subdued in Germany

Recent data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) indicates a notable increase in COVID-19 infections across Germany, while influenza cases remain comparatively low despite widespread cold symptoms among the population. The XFG (Stratus) Omicron sub-variant is currently dominant, but experts do not anticipate a heightened public health risk.

Key Points

• COVID-19 cases in Germany have risen sharply in recent weeks, with over 6,600 cases reported in a single week.
• The XFG (Stratus) Omicron sub-variant accounts for the majority of current COVID-19 infections.
• Influenza cases are significantly lower than COVID-19 cases, and far from levels that would indicate a flu wave.
• Although flu cases are currently low, the total number of influenza infections reported this year is already higher than last year at this time.
• Bavaria and Saxony have reported disproportionately high numbers of influenza cases compared to other German states.

Background

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is the German federal government agency responsible for disease control and prevention. Its weekly reports provide crucial data on the prevalence of various infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and influenza, across the country. These reports inform public health policy and allow for monitoring of trends and potential outbreaks. The data presented helps to assess the severity of current infection rates relative to previous years and guide preventative measures. The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is known for its higher transmissibility compared to earlier variants, often causing milder symptoms, and spreading primarily via the upper respiratory system.

Numbers & Facts

• COVID-19 cases (week of Sept 29 - Oct 6, 2025): 3,849
• COVID-19 cases (week of Oct 6 - Oct 12, 2025): 6,662
• Total COVID-19 cases (Jan - mid-Oct 2025): 65,538
• Total COVID-19 cases (Jan - mid-Oct 2024): 166,541
• Dominant COVID-19 variant: XFG (Stratus) (71% of cases as of late September 2025)
• Influenza cases (week of Oct 6 - Oct 12, 2025): 495
• Influenza cases (previous week): 227
• Influenza cases (end of January 2025, one week): nearly 50,000
• Total Influenza cases (Jan - mid-Oct 2025): 395,095
• Total Influenza cases (Jan - mid-Oct 2024): 204,412
• Influenza cases by state (Jan - mid-Oct 2025): Bavaria (72,108), North Rhine-Westphalia (63,965), Saxony (43,262)

Assessment

The increased COVID-19 cases, dominated by the XFG (Stratus) Omicron sub-variant, suggest ongoing transmission within the German population. While experts currently assess the risk posed by XFG as not significantly elevated, the rising case numbers highlight the continued need for vigilance and adherence to preventative measures, especially for vulnerable individuals. The relatively low influenza numbers, despite widespread cold-like symptoms, could reflect the impact of past vaccination campaigns or other factors. However, the overall higher influenza case count compared to the previous year indicates a potentially more active flu season ahead. The regional variations in influenza cases suggest that local factors, such as population density, vaccination rates, or social behaviors, may play a role in disease transmission.

Outlook

The RKI will continue to monitor COVID-19 and influenza activity in Germany, providing updated data and assessments in its weekly reports. It is likely that COVID-19 case numbers will continue to fluctuate as the virus evolves and immunity levels change within the population. The influenza season typically peaks in the winter months, so further increases in influenza cases are expected. Public health authorities will likely emphasize the importance of vaccination against both COVID-19 and influenza, particularly for high-risk groups. Further research is needed to understand the regional variations in influenza transmission and to develop more effective prevention strategies.

Source: https://www.tagesschau.de/wissen/gesundheit/grippe-rki-zahlen-100.html